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Hydrology

Volume XV |

Hydro-ecological trends of the Chepelarska River (Western Rhodope Mountains, Bulgaria)

Abstract: Significant anthropogenic impacts and climate change are putting the hydro-ecological conditions in river systems at risk of deterioration. It is crucial to record long-term trends for both an objective assessment during the planning process and the development of a methodological basis for further scientific investigations. This article analyzes human pressure and changes in the hydro-ecological status of the Chepelarska River (Southern Bulgaria), making recommendations for its improvement. The study relies on long-term hydrological data about registered runoff for 74 years from 1950 to 2023, information regarding hydro-morphological changes (regulated river sections and constructed hydropower plants), and dataset from monitoring of biological (phytobenthos, phytoplankton, fish fauna, macrophytes, and macrozoobenthos), physicochemical (pH, DO2, BOD5, Total N, Total P, NH4, NO3, NO2, and PO4), and specific chemical (Al, Cd, Cu, Pb, Mn, and Zn) water quality elements collected for 14 years between 2010 and 2023. The resulting information show a rising variability of runoff and a statistically significant tendency toward a flow volume decline, increasing morphological pressure from hydropower construction and aquaculture farming, and despite the overall positive hydro-ecological trend – constant deviations in some biological (macrozoobenthos), physicochemical (Total N, Total P, NH4, NO2, PO4), and specific chemical (Cd, Mn, Pb, Zn) water quality elements. The achievement of better hydro-ecological conditions requires the application of a complex of environmental, engineering, and legislative measures.

Volume XV |

Spatial prediction of flood hazard susceptibility level in Majene urban area, West Sulawesi, Indonesia

Abstract: This study models flood hazard susceptibility in the Majene urban area, West Sulawesi, Indonesia, for 2029–2049 using a GIS-based framework. It examines how land cover transformation associated with rapid urban growth and educational infrastructure expansion influences flood risk. A coupled Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network (CA–ANN) model was applied to simulate land cover change, while Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was used to assess flood susceptibility. Land cover projections were derived from satellite imagery (2014, 2019, 2024). Validation against observed 2024 land cover produced an overall accuracy of 80.51% and a kappa coefficient of 0.62, indicating substantial predictive performance. Flood susceptibility was evaluated through weighted overlay of six biophysical parameters: land cover, slope, elevation, rainfall, distance to rivers, and soil type. Results indicate continued expansion of built-up and plantation areas, accompanied by reductions in grassland and open land. Susceptibility maps classify the area into low, medium, and high zones. Projections suggest a gradual decline in high-susceptibility areas and expansion of medium-susceptibility zones between 2029 and 2049. This shift is associated with increased vegetation cover from plantation growth, which may enhance infiltration and moderate runoff. The findings demonstrate the dynamic interaction between urban expansion and flood susceptibility, providing spatially explicit evidence to support risk-sensitive spatial planning, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable land management in rapidly developing coastal cities.

Volume XIV |

Flood exposure and settlement vulnerability in the Moldavian Plateau, Eastern Romania

Abstract: This paper quantifies settlement-level exposure to centennial flood across the Moldavian Plateau (NE Romania) using a reproducible GIS workflow. Official flood-hazard bands were intersected with built-up limits and building footprints; rural housing was completed by manual digitization, while urban fabric relied on OpenStreetMap layer. Exposed population was estimated from household counts using the national average of 2.6 persons/household, with additional rules for apartment blocks. Results are reported at multiple scales—by river basins (Siret, Jijia including Buhai–Miletin–Bahlui–Bahlueț, Bârlad and Prut/Chineja) and urban case studies (Iași, Bacău, Vaslui). The Siret basin concentrates the highest systemic exposure, Prut highlights transport-corridor vulnerability (DN/DJ roads and railway segments), while Bârlad exhibits dense, localized hot-spots. City-level estimates indicate approximately 68,750 exposed inhabitants in Iași, 36,756 in Bacău, and 2,550 in Vaslui under centennial flood scenario, together with clusters of socio-economic assets and critical infrastructure near the hazard band. Key limitations include potential under or over counts in recent developments, block-stairwell granularity, and reliance on census-based household averages. The findings support differentiated risk-reduction priorities: structural measures across Siret sub-basins, transport protection and redundancy along Prut, and targeted local actions in Bârlad. Periodic updates of hazard mapping using LiDAR and hydraulic modeling are recommended to refine exposure estimates and planning decisions.

Volume XXIII |

Tsunami evacuation modelling for region capacity evaluation in Panimbang, Pandeglang Regency, Indonesia

Abstract: Panimbang sub-district, located in the subduction zone of the Indo-Australian plate and directly facing Mount Anak Krakatau, is highly vulnerable to tsunami hazards. The region’s geographic location and its coastal topography make it particularly susceptible to the devastating impacts of tsunamis. This study assesses the region’s preparedness to manage tsunami risks using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools to model evacuation routes and estimate potential inundation areas. The research evaluates the effectiveness of the region’s evacuation capacity, considering critical factors such as population distribution, land cover, and the time required for residents to evacuate safely.
The study’s findings indicate that 74.91% of the 512.73 hectares of residential area in Panimbang is at significant risk of tsunami impact, potentially affecting approximately 38,723 people. This high level of exposure underscores the urgent need for tailored evacuation strategies, particularly in densely populated areas, to minimize the risk of casualties. The analysis also highlights the importance of enhancing infrastructure and disaster preparedness plans to increase the resilience of communities most vulnerable to tsunami threats. The research provides valuable insights into the critical elements of tsunami disaster management. It can serve as a crucial reference for future studies focused on improving evacuation routes, shelter planning, and other essential aspects of critical infrastructure. By addressing these areas, future efforts can more effectively safeguard the population in tsunami-prone regions, ensuring a more efficient and organized disaster response that significantly reduces the potential for loss of life and property.