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Climatology

Volume XXIII |

Mapping desertification susceptibility in the Hodna watershed Algeria, using a remote sensing-based logistic regression approach

Abstract: This study aims to identify regions prone to desertification in the Hodna basin, which covers a vast area of the vulnerable Algerian Steppes. Thirteen factors were selected as independent variables: geomorphological factors (wind and water erosion, Topographic Position Index (TPI), Drainage Density, Slope, Aspect, Elevation), environmental factors (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Evapotranspiration), soil factors (Land surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Salinity Index (NDSI), and socio-economic factors (the Human Influence Index (HII) and the Livestock. Due to the lack of previous desertification data, NDVI anomalies served as the dependent variable. all of the variables were mainly derived using remote sensing techniques and a logistic regression model was applied for analysis in the R environment for desertification susceptibility mapping, displaying stable predictive power with a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.76. Unlike the Northern part of the Mediterranean, where water erosion is predominant, wind erosion and soil salinization emerged as key factors in this study, while the socio-economic factors had less influence than anticipated. The resulting map shows that 45.4% of the basin is highly to very highly susceptible to desertification, provinding essential data for targeted intervention strategies.

Volume XXII |

Influence of climate conditions on maize yield in Oltenia (1990-2021)

Abstract: Maize, the most important cereal crop at global level, is a climate-sensitive plant. Consequently, the changes of the key meteorological parameters, namely temperature and precipitation amount, determine low yields, especially in rain-fed regions. The dependency of maize yield on climate conditions was assessed based on monthly values of the considered meteorological parameters (data from 14 meteorological stations for the period 1990-2021). The mean values of the analysed interval generally reveal proper conditions for the development of maize. However, starting with June until September, mean temperatures are 1 to 2°C above the optimum thermal threshold, as mentioned in the specialized literature. The growth degree days index (GDD) emphasizes Oltenia as a region with a very good thermal potential for maize, all mean values exceeding 1600°C, but the southwestern sector of the plain area has already exceeded 2000°C, underlining the increase in heat stress. The water deficit generates dry conditions, especially in Mehedinți, Dolj, and Olt, mainly in the interval July-August, which also corresponds to the maximum water requirements of maize. Drought prone areas were determined based on Selyaninov’s hydrothermal coefficient (HTC), which indicates slightly dry conditions in the growing season in the plain area, while northwards, in the piedmont and Subcarpathians, the climate is slightly humid, respectively moderately humid, drought risk decreasing gradually in this direction. At monthly level, August is the most problematic period as, except the northeastern part (Polovragi and Râmnicu Vâlcea), the entire region displays dry, moderately dry, and slightly dry conditions. The lowest maize yields correspond to the years 1993, 2000, 2002, 2007, and 2012. If in the first three years, the drastic yield reduction was mostly determined by a severe water deficit registered during the entire life cycle of the plant, in the last two years, the main restrictive factor was represented by temperature, mean monthly values exceeding 27°C and mean maximum values 35°C, especially in the plain area. Taking into account the projected increase in temperature and water deficit, the impact of climate conditions on maize crops may also be gradually higher in Oltenia and certain adaptation measures should be taken.

Volume XXII |

A statistical analysis of temperature and precipitation in Belgrade, Serbia (1961-2020)

Abstract: The most significant effects of climate change are related to temperature and precipitation. Changes in precipitation and temperature patterns affect water resource capacity, agricultural activities, global biodiversity and emergency management. In this study, using two statistical models (Mann-Kendall and Pettit’s test), climate data for the territory of Belgrade in the time interval 1961-2020 were processed. Trends were analyzed: average annual temperatures, average monthly temperatures, annual and monthly precipitation amounts. The aim of the research is to determine the statistical significance of the increasing/decreasing temperature and precipitation trends on a monthly and annual basis. Based on the obtained results, it was determined that the changing point of the annual temperature is in 1997, while a statistically significant increasing trend was observed in all months except November. The increasing trend recorded by the precipitation amount is 0.345 mm/year, but without statistical significance. The most significant results corresponding to July and October.

Volume XX |

Ecoclimatic characteristics of the south-western slope of the Pirin Mountains (Bulgaria)

Abstract: The paper characterizes thermal and humidity conditions within one of the insufficiently investigated parts of Bulgaria from the climate point of view, namely the south-western slope of the Pirin Mountains. The initial data for the study (monthly temperatures and precipitation amounts) were obtained from our own meteorological monitoring station for the period 2013-2021, organized by the Department of Climatology, Hydrology and Geomorphology, Sofia University, Bulgaria. By the calculation of Mayr tetratherm (MT), monthly De Martonne aridity index (Im) and Compensated Summer Ombrothermic index (CSOi) the predominance of humid conditions in the studied area is established. There is a large inter-annual variability of the De Martonne aridity index and the Compensated Summer Ombrothermic index, which are more influenced by precipitation than air temperature in the middle part of the mountains. On the other hand, in combination with low precipitation amounts, high temperatures in recent years have contributed to the manifestation of arid features of the climate. The results of the study supplement the insufficient information about the bioclimatic characteristics of the Pirin Mountains and clarify the peculiarities of the climate in these mountains, which have two clearly distinguishable macroslopes with west-southwest and east-northeast exposure.

Volume XIX |

Agriculture drought assessment based on remote sensing, cloud computing, multi-temporal analysis. A case study: the Mostiștea Plain (Romania)

Abstract: Agricultural drought is one of the most important natural hazards worldwide, affecting a significant proportion of the global population. Earth Observation multi-spectral imagery satellites can provide a comprehensive picture of all land and sea areas of the Earth. Free of charge and open access imagery from missions such as Sentinel-2 provides high quality imagery with rapid high revisit period. Earth Engine© developed by Google Inc. provides the possibility to view and analyse petabytes of remote sensing data in archives that include more than thirty years of satellite imagery and scientific datasets. This paper proposes a cloud- based computation approach and analysis of multi-temporal, high resolution Sentinel-2 imagery on the Mostiștea Plain (Romania) in order to evaluate the agriculture drought. Custom javascript code was created in the Code Editor for calculating and analyzing remote sensing-based indices between 2017 and 2019. The results were classified into six classes: Water, No drought, Light drought, Moderate drought, Heavy drought, Severe drought. According to the classification, the southern half of Mostiștea Plain was the most affected area by a heavy agricultural drought during 2017-2019 period.