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Volume XV |

The Mediterranean Oscillation (MOI) and the Forest Fires in Romania in the Period 1986–2014

Abstract: The study examines the connection between the Mediterranean Oscillation (MOI) and the forest fires (the annual number of fires, the annual burned area and the average burned area per fire) in Romania in the period 1986–2014. Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R) was used for determination of the correlation connection. Two MOI datasets were used: MOI-1 (Algiers and Cairo) and MOI-2 (Israel and Gibraltar). Monthly, seasonal and annual values of MOI were used in the calculations. Results for the number of fires and MOI-1: the highest values of R (statistically significant at the level of p≤0.05) were obtained for April (–0.446) and June (0.423), and for summer (0.432). The annual burned area and MOI-1: the highest values of R (statistically significant at the level of p≤0.05) were obtained for April (–0.459), and for winter (0.406). The number of fires and MOI-2: the highest values of R (statistically significant at the level of p≤0.01) were obtained for June (0.556) and February (0.475), and for summer (0.507). The annual burned area and MOI-2: the highest values of R (statistically significant at the level of p≤0.05) were obtained for June (0.449) and February (0.439), and for summer (0.439). Results of the research could be used for the long-term forecast of forest fires in Romania. However, further investigations of the connection between forest fires and other climate indices are necessary.