fg

Subscribe2


 

Volume XV |

The Mediterranean Oscillation (MOI) and the Forest Fires in Romania in the Period 1986–2014

Abstract: The study examines the connection between the Mediterranean Oscillation (MOI) and the forest fires (the annual number of fires, the annual burned area and the average burned area per fire) in Romania in the period 1986–2014. Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R) was used for determination of the correlation connection. Two MOI datasets were used: MOI-1 (Algiers and Cairo) and MOI-2 (Israel and Gibraltar). Monthly, seasonal and annual values of MOI were used in the calculations. Results for the number of fires and MOI-1: the highest values of R (statistically significant at the level of p≤0.05) were obtained for April (–0.446) and June (0.423), and for summer (0.432). The annual burned area and MOI-1: the highest values of R (statistically significant at the level of p≤0.05) were obtained for April (–0.459), and for winter (0.406). The number of fires and MOI-2: the highest values of R (statistically significant at the level of p≤0.01) were obtained for June (0.556) and February (0.475), and for summer (0.507). The annual burned area and MOI-2: the highest values of R (statistically significant at the level of p≤0.05) were obtained for June (0.449) and February (0.439), and for summer (0.439). Results of the research could be used for the long-term forecast of forest fires in Romania. However, further investigations of the connection between forest fires and other climate indices are necessary.

Volume X |

The Impact of Solar Activity on the Greatest Forest Fires of Deliblatska peščara (Serbia)

Abstract: The subject of research refers to potential causative-effective connection between processes on the sun and the largest forest fires in Deliblatska peščara. The four greatest forest fires in Deliblatska peščara in the period 1948-2009 were in 1973, 1990, 1996 and 2007. The analysis of solar activity, especially the solar wind data and the analysis of the fire events were used in the research of the possibility of mutual connection. There are no enough data for the fire that occurred in 1973 on the basis of which the connection with processes on the sun would be determined. The fire from 1990 developed in the conditions of intensive solar activity and it was probably caused by the solar wind. There are some indications that the solar wind from energetic region 7981 caused the largest forest fire in Deliblatska peščara in 1996. For fire that occurred in 2007, the energy source (coronary hole CH279) was determined, as well as the moving of the solar wind particles. During the investigated fires the phenomena characterising fires caused by solar wind were recorded, such as frequent wind direction changes and appearance of fire on different locations at the same time. The statistical analysis of the number of fires in Deliblatska peščara and AMO also indicated the anti-phase connection between these events. Even though the obtained results have shown the signal of the connection between charged particles and initial phase of fire, the laboratory testing is necessary to prove the mentioned hypothesis.