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Volume X |

Observed changes in precipitation in the Danube river lower basin in the context of climate change

Abstract: The study presents the observed variability and changes in precipitation regime in the Danube river lower basin, which is situated along both sides of the border between Bulgaria and Romania. The research is based on monthly precipitation totals recorded at 22 meteorological stations from Bulgaria and Romania. The investigated period is 1961-2007 out of which two reference periods are considered, the last 30 years (1978-2007) and the usually used WMO reference for the contemporary climate (1961-1990). The main objective of the study is to give actual information about precipitation variability in the region in the context of global climate change. The results of the work point out on some characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the region – drought and high precipitation, and on the role of natural mechanisms for precipitation variability. Based on the statistical methods we have used, the results can be summarized as follows: – Summer precipitation represents 30-35% of annual precipitation total followed by spring precipitation with about 25-28% of annual values. Autumn precipitation is between 22-24% of annual values in most of the stations. Winter precipitation represents about 20% of annual precipitation; – The wet periods have been observed at the end of the 1960’s and at the beginning of the 1970’s; – The intensive drought from 1983 to 1993 has been confirmed by calculating the precipitation indices like as Rainfall Anomaly Index and Cumulative Anomaly Index. The driest year during the investigated period was 2000; – Increasing occurrence of extremely wet months has been observed since 2002.